Museveni’s NRM is a ‘hostile’ anti-Buganda force
By Dr. Vincent Magombe
10th January 2011
In the last few weeks, I have been carrying out a rather unscientific electoral survey of my own. I asked 20 Baganda friends who previously voted for Museveni’s NRM what their voting intentions are in the coming national elections.
To my great surprise, I found that all of them were intending to ditch President Museveni’s party and vote for the different opposition parties. This unanimous anti-NRM sentiment is premised on what my Baganda friends categorise as “…overt and unambiguous anti-Buganda politics of President Yoweri Museveni”.
The result of my mini-survey has convinced me that there will be a collective electoral rebellion in Buganda driven by collective fear that President Museveni no longer respects Buganda Kingdom and the Kabaka.
The Baganda now fear that if Museveni were to be re-elected, then the very future of the Kingdom will be in peril. This fact is augmented by the opposition parties’ public show of support and affection for Buganda Kingdom and the crucial ‘Federo’ aspirations of most Baganda. But why should anyone think the Baganda will this time vote as a collective unit and that their vote will be against Museveni?
The answer to that question lies partly in the changed voting trends of the last 10 years and partly in the very significant political developments since the 2006 elections which have seen Museveni and his NRM party evolve into a hostile force against Buganda Kingdom.
While Museveni is credited with reviving Buganda Kingdom, in the last few years, there have been far too many anti-Buganda actions and gestures by the President. These have given rise to genuine fears and even dislike of the NRM regime by the afflicted Baganda.
The most explicit anti-Buganda actions by Museveni’s government were: Museveni’s stubborn refusal to provide for the establishment of the Federal system of governance, the banning Kabaka’s visit to Kayunga which culminated in the killing of dozens of Baganda youths, and the banning of Buganda Kingdom’s CBS radio station; a station that is widely seen as the voice of Buganda and its King.
The changing electoral dynamics
While it is true that many Ugandans in the past voted for a President and a party that promised them jobs, medicine and books for their children, it is clear that in the last few decades, there has been a transformative shift in the way most Ugandans cast their votes.
What has emerged are new electoral dynamics whereby more collectivistic and group-based factors determine who wins or loses an election. At the core of this new electoral dispensation is the tribal factor. Entire tribes and ethnic communities have started making their electoral choices based on their collective interests and aspirations.
A clear example of this new shift in voting approaches can be found in the results of the 2006 elections. Because of the collective concerns of the Acholi people other Northern Ugandan tribes about the lack of security, peace and economic development, the ruling NRM party was roundly defeated by the opposition in the region.
How will the north vote in this election?
In all probability, the 2011 elections will be similar to the 2006 elections. There are indications that the collective anti-NRM sentiment in the north is still solid. One reason for this resentment remains the abject poverty that continues to afflict the war-affected communities of West Nile, Acholi, Lango, and Karamoja.
Even with the alleged end of the LRA insurgency, the ineffective and near-chaotic manner in which the resettlement programmes have been handled by the Kampala regime have consolidated the belief among many Northerners that President Museveni’s governments is intrinsically and instinctively anti-North.
The emergence of a new breed of dynamic opposition leaders in the North like Dr. Olara Otunnu and Norbert Mao has added to the widespread conviction among Northerners that a vote for Museveni is a wasted vote. Many of these communities feel the collapse of NRM rule would offer the added bonus of a possible rise to power of a true son of the soil.
How will the Karamoja region vote in this election?
Another area where the NRM government faces eminent defeat is Karamoja. Recent brutalities by the UPDF in this region will most likely ensure an anti-NRM vote. Although the government initially denied allegations of indiscriminate shooting of Karamajong warriors during the botched dis-armament exercise, it finally acknowledged, belatedly, that grave crimes were committed by the army against Karamajong civilians.
The recent report in the government’s own New Vision newspaper about how a dozen soldiers raped a young Karamajong girl can only entrench anti-government feelings and perceptions during this crucial election.
Will Buganda play kingmaker in this election?
Given the great possibility of an anti-NRM block vote in Northern Uganda, and with Western and Eastern Uganda votes expected to be shared between Museveni and the opposition parties, the ultimate power-broker in the 2011 elections will be Buganda.
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