Oil may become bad news for African dictators
By Abbey K. Semuwemba
28th Feb 2011
What on earth is going on in Africa?
What we are witnessing in North Africa is a gradual transformation of society. Some people have argued that it will take decades to see such a thing in Sub Sahara Africa. And going by the culture and behaviour in Sub Sahara Africa, they are probably right. Tribes and religion have divided the Africans in the South than anywhere else in the world. This makes anything like a united revolution difficult to happen. Nevertheless, there is always a beginning for everything.
Revolutions in Africa tend to sweep the continent at the same time. The strata started with the time when Africa was under monarchies or kingships; followed by colonialists; then the colonialists were replaced by the so-called Pan-Africanists like Obote, Kenyatta, Nkrumah, Nyerere etc. These were then replaced by military leaders who took over through coups and coup leaders were in turn replaced by ‘freedom fighters’ [whatever that means].
My feeling is that society is now revolving towards replacing the so-called ‘freedom fighters’ with something whose definition I cannot understand right now.
The reason I say that is because I don’t know the kind of leaders who are going to replace the ‘’freedom fighters’’. Compared to the men and women who took over immediately after independence, it is safe to say that many people of our generation are not really nationalists.
Our generation is so selfish and money minded to the extent that they can betray anyone as long as the man with the biggest pay-cheque is willing to pay up. The Nkrumahs built hospitals, schools, roads and other infrastructure and everybody can see these things today. Most of Ghana’s infrastructure for example was built during Nkrumah’s time.
It is the same story in Uganda and elsewhere. The military leaders who took over from Nkrumah’s generation also tried their best to develop their countries. But Africa has been disappointed by the so-called 1980 ‘freedom fighters’ who are not willing to leave power peacefully.
Gaddafi and some of his friends have tried to beat the strata because he [Gadaffi] has survived a lot of revolutions in Africa. In fact, Gadaffi has been sponsoring revolutions in Africa. He was the man who created dinosaurs like Charles Taylor. He is also responsible for creating the so-called ”freedom fighters” who are disturbing us today.
The problem for Gadaffi is that he will not be allowed to hold the world at ransom even as oil prices are going crazy. ABC reported that a barrel of oil is now trading at $100. The world’s stock markets are in turmoil. Some experts are warning that oil could go up to $220 a barrel if the situation is allowed to continue.
My prediction therefore is that if Gadaffi doesn’t step down in the next few weeks, we are likely to see international military intervention because damage to the international economy will not be allowed to continue. So any leader presiding over oil wells, including our Museveni, should watch out for the international community if protest erupt.
If protesters gain ground, then the international community will abandon such leaders and ally with protesters. They go with the flow [“bagenda nebigenda”] Mubarak and his Tunisian counterpart are now disappointed with the people they once called friends.
Libya is one of the major suppliers of oil to Europe. Without oil, one can argue that the international community wouldn’t have been interested in the events in Libya and Gadafi would have continued killing his people without attracting too much attention.
The U.S. has two pretty obvious templates to use when considering the possibility of intervention: Kosovo and Iraq. In Kosovo, USA had the support of their NATO allies; no American lives were lost in combat; the financial cost of intervention was minimal; and the operation was successful in stopping the humanitarian crisis.
The USA’s agreement with the UN requires approval of the Security Council. Their intervention in Kosovo was therefore illegal under international law. But the U.N. subsequently ruled that it [the intervention] was justified on humanitarian grounds. This template fits perfectly in Libya’s case since Gadaffi has been shooting at his own people.
In Iraq on the other hand, the US alienated her European allies and the war was not only illegal, but it was immoral too. The cost [of the Iraq war] in terms of blood and treasures boggles the imagination. Their financial costs have been estimated at $3 trillion or more, and some economists believe the Iraq war was the fundamental cause of the 2008 economic crash. END. Please log into www.ugandacorrespondent.com every Monday to read our top stories and anytime mid-week for our news updates.
The writer is a Ugandan living in the United Kingdom
