Britain may be preparing to kick Museveni out
By Abbey K. Semuwemba
16th May 2011: It is believed in some quarters that the West is not yet sure of Dr. Kizza Besigye and that is why Museveni is still the president of Uganda. But surely, Besigye would not be what he is today without Western support.
Try it yourselves: Protester throws teargas back to police
For instance, the UK government did a great deal to help FDC out financially in the presidential campaigns last year. Besigye attended the Conservative Party annual conference and was glad to show pictures of him and the Prime minister together on his blog during the campaigns.
David Cameron and Besigye seem to be on the same table as far as Uganda issues are concerned. The FDC 2011 election manifesto received a lot of input from the Conservatives such that some people accused the party of plagiarizing it. The media in the UK seems to be preparing us for anything in Uganda. That is how the UK government usually works. Whenever they are planning something, the media tends to come in handy in terms of psychological preparations of the population.
In addition, Rupert Murdoch who owns most of the newspapers here in the UK and USA is a big influence in the politics of both countries. He influences foreign policy through his media outlets. So when you start seeing Besigye stories in the Daily Mirror and The Guardian here in the UK on a regular basis then you know something serious is cooking. If I was Museveni right now, I would be spending more money in finding out where things have gone wrong than wasting time on those guys in the intelligence. They are feeding him more ‘poison’ than facts.
On the other hand, the Russians, French, Germans and the Japanese are always in no man’s land as far as foreign intervention is concerned. They tend to go with the flow. The Chinese are on Museveni’s side because they always side with whoever is in power. It is the Americans who have not yet endorsed Besigye and that is why Museveni is still in power. The Americans seem to have a lot of influence on UK’s foreign policy. If Museveni is confirmed as a liability in the eyes of most Ugandans, the Americans can go with anybody. I can bet on that!
It is a fact that the US has got more influence than UK on international matters. But they need each other. When the US wanted to attack Iraq under Saddam, it needed some form of legitimacy to do so, and the UK is always the first to support their foreign wars and vice versa. So if the UK wants to kick Museveni out, Americans will not hesitate to support them because that is how international politics plays out. “…You scratch my back, I scratch yours”.
All it needs is for Besigye and others to create a humanitarian situation in the country that requires foreign intervention. If that happens, that will be the end of Museveni’s dictatorship. Under international law it is permissible to act in self defence and it is permissible to intervene in another country’s affairs for humanitarian reasons.
Olara Otunnu is the weakest link
Mr. Otunnu is the weakest link among the top three opposition leaders. Yes, he has got international contacts and all that, but he is not popular on the ground. He is “Mr Smiley” and this does not sell in African politics. The US has a basic mythology that basically involves appeasement of some dictators, squeezing some, and getting rid of others.
For example, George Bush used to praise Hussein Mubarak well knowing that he was a dictator. But when protests started, they nicked him in the bud. Actually, there is nothing like a favourite opposition leader for USA unless one is ready to protect their interests when they gain power. So the myth that Otunnu is the US’s preferred candidate was built by the media in Kampala and Otunnu knows that. The key is being popular among the “wannainchi” before anything else.
Right now, there is no way anyone can form a transitional government in Uganda without Besigye being in it; simply because he is more popular than the rest. Besigye’s biggest enemy now is not Ugandans but some FDC leaders and others in the opposition who harbour leadership ambitions. They are not happy that Besigye still has more ‘pull’ power than them. These are the people Museveni will use to plot Besigye’s downfall.
By the way, I can’t see the Americans abandoning Museveni soon. He is doing everything the Americans want. So why would they want to get rid of him? I can however see Europe knocking Museveni out if Britain does a good PR job on the issue. There is a strong sense in the UK that there is chaos in Uganda and the population has been prepared through regular media reports on Besigye and the riots that followed his brutal arrest. We have been these reports on BBC and Channel 4 news almost every week.
So don’t be surprised if things change faster than we thought; especially if Museveni continues with his policy of ‘chest thumping’. END. Please login to www.ugandacorrespondent.com every Monday to read our top stories and anytime mid-week for our news updates.
