By Ismael Kyambadde

29^th Aug 2011: If you were thinking like me, you would be tempted to ask the question:  Why is Museveni bent on deciphering Mabira from the Ugandan map?  Many answers would ensue.  The correctness of Visionary thinking! The necessity of Sugar in the lives of the people of Uganda! The political debacle with the opposition etc!

But for me, the question incites another wave of thought, i.e. the obsessive necessity to gain dominance over land in Buganda. This is where I would like to make a contribution. The only time this issue has been tackled is when there is tension between Museveni and the Kabakaship.  Museveni is often portrayed as a “nationalist” and the Baganda as diabolical “tribalists” who are selfish and bent on chasing away foreigners.

Although there could be some sense in that argument, it would only mitigate Museveni’s sentence on conviction for usurping Buganda land.  So some deeper thought needs to be put into this. The inquest should be:  What does Buganda have, that would be eroded if Museveni were to have the upper hand of influence in the whole of Buganda?

It’s perhaps important to begin by reciting the usual reason adduced by NRM government about who restored Buganda Kingdom after it had been abolished by northerners.  When the controversy over Buganda land resurfaced, the same government, which restored Kingdoms for cultural rather than political reasons, wasted no time in politicizing the matter when it was a northerner [Lands Minister Omara Atubo] pushing for new land reform laws.

The government’s agenda was therefore to use a northerner to further weaken Buganda Kingdom’s relevance to the politics of Uganda.  In my view, Museveni’s push to giveaway Mabira forest for sugarcane growing is not really about the need to produce more sugar.  It’s is about a long term NRM agenda to weaken the Kabaka of Buganda; and that is why Museveni turned down Kabaka’s generous offer of alternative land [not Mabira] for sugarcane growing.

To appreciate this argument, one needs to revisit what constituted the original Buganda; right from Kooki in Rakai to Lake Kyoga in the north-east; Kiira in the east, to the furthest end of Semababule in the west. How much of that mass of land does Buganda still control?  We may argue about the exact size of the land Buganda has lost, but not the fact that it has definitely lost a lot of land and influence under Museveni’s rule.

For a start, Rakai, Masaka, Mubende, Kiboga, and Luwero are now cattle-corridor areas.  Today, real power in those areas lies NOT with the Kabaka but with by those who dominate the cattle business; namely, Museveni’s Balaalo.  As for Kalangala, Mpigi and Kampala, Buganda is definitely not the dominant force today.

That leaves Buganda with only Mukono; and even that, with the giveaway of nearby Mabira forest well underway, will soon be “diluted” like all the other original districts of Buganda.  The other reason that will put Mukono in Museveni’s “firing line” is because it is proving to be an anti-Museveni stronghold; especially with the emergence of tough opposition politicians like Betty Nambooze.

Thirdly, the Baganda in Mukono have remained loyal to the Kabaka of Buganda despite the fact that Museveni created a bogus new Banyala Kingdom out of Buganda’s sphere of influence; a move that sparked the 2009 riots after the Kabaka was stopped by military men from visiting Kayunga.

Fourthly, Mukono is very strategic because of its proximity to important resources [like hydro power electricity] without which Uganda would literally be a non-viable state; just like the many districts that Museveni has created and still creating.  So what are the real implications of Museveni’s push to giveaway Mabira?

First of all, if Museveni takes over Mabira, it would create a sugar cane growing zone where most employees would be non-Baganda [like northerners and westerners] who, as “Bafuruki”, can be easily intimidated to support whatever Museveni wants.  Museveni will therefore have taken full advantage of the fact that most of us Baganda are reluctant to do hard manual labour.

When that happens, Museveni will then, when he wants votes, have a legitimate reason to go to northern and western Uganda and declare to the people in those areas that he has created employment opportunities for their children in Buganda.

Secondly the chances of some Itongwa-like rebel using Mabira forest to destabilize Museveni’s hold on power would be greatly lessened. Other forests like Busitema and that around Mt Elgon are already facing a similar fate.  Salim Saleh has already camped in Arua to witness the apportioning of Borifa Forest; the only semblance of a forest in West Nile? Budongo forest is virtually gone to Kinyara sugar factory.

Thirdly, the NRM’s shrewd political strategists could decide to employ some ‘mercenaries’ to set the sugarcane plantations on fire and claim that it’s pro-Mabira opposition politicians and extremist environmental activists who burnt the plantations to sabotage development.  In fact, I would like to predict here and now that in the not too distant future, we shall see some sugarcane plantations on fire.

Finally, with Museveni loyalists now working and living around the sugar plantations created on Buganda Kingdom land, it would be a lot easier for Museveni to mobilize them [as wanainchi] to rise up and stop the Kabaka of Buganda from visiting parts of his territory like Kayunga.

With that, Museveni will happily distance himself from citizen-led anti-Kabaka movements and leave our people to fight themselves like grasshoppers in a bottle.  Hooray!  Long Live Yoweri Kaguta Museveni.  As a Muganda, I say over my dead body!  Rise up bazukulu ba Kintu.

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