By Okello Lucima

18^th February 2013:

In the first part of this two part analysis, I noted that death is a mysterious, fearsome and terrifying spectre. And that, despite this, sometimes death bears fortunes for relatives and political second fiddlers who survive those who die.

I pointed out the mixed fortunes of princes and princesses, widows and widowers, and second fiddlers like vice presidents – to whom death is both a time for sadness and joy, because they lose and win with the same stroke.  I used this duality to examine the new trend of political succession by widowed spouses, orphans and siblings.

In the second part, I endeavour to question whether this new trend of succeeding dead parents, spouses and now possibly siblings, may be the best route to settle the uncomfortable succession question in the NRM and make a Kaguta succeeding a Kaguta more probable, were Gen. Museveni to rule until he dies in office.

Of course it is not implausible for citizens like Janet Kataha Museveni, or Brig. Muhoozi Kainerugaba to succeed her husband or his father respectively while he is still alive.  However, the state in which the NRM and the state currently find itself in makes such prospects remote.

First, the NRM party is torn asunder by internal political rivalries, corruption scandals, and personality conflicts.  Secondly, Museveni does not appear to be the cohesive glue that once held the NRN together.

Third, there is considerable opposition today from political parties and civil society to Museveni’s authoritarian rule.  They are now asking difficult questions about democratic governance and accountability.  They are now asking difficult questions about the handling of oil laws, as well as the suspicious deaths of high profile citizens!

Therefore, the establishment of a “Kaguta Daynasty” through Janet or Muhoozi seems even more improbable today.  Museveni himself seems to recognize this – which may explain why he was disdainful of citizens who questioned the state’s truthfulness and or innocence in the circumstances of Nebanda’s inexplicably tragic death.

Invoking threats of a military takeover to terrorise the populace and buy time is clearly his tactic now.  Museveni seems to have come to the conclusion that just like death propelled Proscovia Alengot into parliament, public sympathy could also propel Muhoozi or Janet to succeed him after his death.

However, unlike the natural but tragic deaths of MPs, Museveni’s death needs to be epic and more tragic in order to generate sufficient public grief for either Janet or Muhoozi to succeed him.

For instance, over the years, many have questioned Museveni’s sincerity in his dealings with political opponents. More recently, the controversial death of Nebanda and state’s response have raised the perennial question about Museveni’s integrity and truthfulness.

The fallout from Nebanda’s death could be the opportunity for Museveni to acquit himself, while also raising the stakes of a possible Kaguta succession.  All he needs is the courage of a Samurai Warrior: He should go to Constitutional Square or Kololo Independence Grounds and fall on his own sword for a Kaguta to takeover.

In any case, Ugandans have a hard time comprehending anything in the abstract.  They learn visually – that is why Museveni’s constant talk about his family’s sacrifices for Uganda have earned him little respect.

He may talk about how he accomplished everything in the Ten Point Programme, except deal conclusively with Joseph Kony and the LRA.

He knows any thought that he had convincingly exploded the myth of the invincibility of the northern martial tribes, will never hold unless, AK-47 in hand, he plants his jackboots on the head of a lifeless Gen. Kony; the one that has so far gotten away.

That is why he declares to the country that he will singlehandedly go into the jungles of DR Congo, Central African Republic, Southern Sudan or to the end of the earth to bring back Kony’s “primitive head” – an act that in his mind, would mark the end of the LRA menace.

The trouble is that Museveni has no national stature left – therefore returning with Kony’s head as a trophy from a victorious battle will not do the trick. Cynics will sneer that it was long overdue.  Others will say that without the US Special Forces, Museveni wouldn’t have got Kony’s head.

What matters to Museveni is no longer his legacy – it’s to prepare the ground for another Kaguta to succeed him.  That is the only way he can now rekindle his Chwezi dynasty dream.  If he feels that the ground is ripe for another Kaguta, then he doesn’t even need to take a bullet.  He could simply drink hemlock and hire Hollywood special effect artists to conjure grievous and tragic gunshot wounds on his body.

If such a “heroic” end doesn’t compel Ugandans to proclaim the grieving Muhoozi or Janet as a legitimate successor, then nothing else will.

An ordinary end for a larger than life “hero” – perhaps even seen by millions of TV viewers fading away on his hospital deathbed would not be enough for Janet or Muhoozi to ascend to the throne.  END: Login to www.ugandacorrespondent.com every Monday to read our top stories mid-week for our updates

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